Environmental Expert On Ethanol Part 3

In More Hype Than Hope, environmental expert Zoltan Mester, Ph.D., explains how conservation evaporates ethanol's benefits for cars:

The question then arises whether improvements in fuel economy can achieve comparable gasoline savings as predicted by ethanol substitution.  Based on statistical information from the Federal Highway Administration in 2004 approximately 90 million pickups trucks, SUVs and vans were registered in the USA. Assuming 90 percent of this fleet was gasoline powered with 18mpg average fuel economy and 15,000 miles driven per vehicle annually this fleet of vehicles consumed 1.79 billion Barrels of gasoline per year (4.9 million Barrels per day). By raising the fuel economy to 20 miles per gallon corresponding to 11 percent increase would save 7.5 billion gallons of gasoline per year. This gasoline saving is equivalent to using 10.5 billion gallons of ethanol as gasoline substitute which is 40 percent more ethanol than set by the Energy Policy Act for 2012.

In sum, ethanol from corn alone is not a significant source as gasoline substitute at the national level but it can ease the gasoline squeeze in and around areas where the corn industry thrives. The goals by the Energy Policy Act for ethanol production from any renewable source can be met by a relatively modest increase in fuel economy for SUVs, vans and pickup trucks not even taking into account passenger cars. Pending commercial viability, cellulose conversion to ethanol has a better chance to ease the gasoline squeeze at the national level.